As one might expect, the Kentucky Derby track conditions have varied greatly over its 147 year history. Weather can strongly affect the outcome of the race, and specific horses may have an advantage depending on the different track conditions.
Churchill Downs is a dirt track that has experienced a full range of weather over the years. The conditions on a dirt track can be fast, wet-fast, good, slow, heavy, muddy, and sloppy, and these terms are all based on the amount of moisture found in the surface.
Horses typically have a history of performing well on certain track conditions and continue that trend throughout their racing careers. So before you place your bets, make sure to research the horse’s previous racing results on different track conditions.
The optimal track condition for a race is fast which means the surface is dry. Horses tend to post their best results on this surface, so look for the most talented participant to fare better in those conditions. A wet-fast track condition is when a dirt track has a thin layer of moisture on top and can also produce fast times. “Good” track conditions means that the dirt surface is drying out and produces slower times than a fast track would.
Muddy track conditions occur when there is a deep level of moisture on the track. Similarly, sloppy track conditions are when the dirt surface is covered in water and puddles that can create splashes during the race. A mudder is a horse that performs well in wet conditions and has an advantage over horses that are not experienced with that type of race. So focus on horses in the field that have performed well in these conditions in past races.
When the track is wet, mud gets kicked up into the jockey and horses’ faces from the horses ahead of them. It is very important for a horse to get out of the gate quickly in these situations. Horses that are back-of-the pack closers and known to start slow do not fare well in these races. Consider a front-running horse that has proven to have speedy starts out of the gate to win. An early lead can be the difference maker in this kind of race. It is also very common for trainers to scratch their horse from the race in certain conditions to eliminate a risk of an injury, so look out how the field may change as the track conditions do.
In 2018, The Kentucky Derby had very sloppy conditions after a rainstorm. Justify, the favorite, got out of the seventh gate quickly and gained great outside positioning to put himself in second place after the first turn. He was able to set the pace as no other horse was directly in front of him giving him a clear view and an edge over everyone. Justify ended up taking the lead at the third turn and pulled away from the pack on the final stretch to take home the crown.
The Kentucky Derby track conditions over the years have predominantly been fast as Churchill Downs is a very well-maintained racing track. Out of the 146 total Kentucky Derby races to date, 101 of them have been considered “fast” conditions. There have only been 7 muddy and 9 sloppy condition races.
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