You’ve likely seen dozens of articles about the favorites at the Kentucky Derby, but what about the worst bets on Derby Day — the bets that are essentially lighting your hard-earned Hamiltons on fire. Everyone loves an underdog story — including the house when they’re collecting your money after you place a trifecta on three horses with 65-1 odds. So to make sure you avoid that fate this year, here are our bets to avoid at the 2021 Kentucky Derby.
First, let’s take a look at the betting lines. At maximum capacity with no scratches, the Derby will have 20 horses. As of April 1, the three horses with the lowest odds according to Vegas Insider are Like the King, Brooklyn Strong, Helium, Sainthood, Hidden Stash, and Keepmeinmind. All three horses sit at 50-1 odds to win. Sitting slightly ahead of that group is Super Stock, Bourbonic, and Sour and Sandwich at 30-1.
Now, at this point you’re probably wondering, what are the lowest odds a Kentucky Derby winner has ever had? The answer to that question takes us all the way back to 1913, when Donerail rode to victory despite 91-1 odds. For those looking to write that upset off as an anomaly due to the state of the odds-making process in 1913 (maybe the bookies missed an important telegraph), there are recent examples of horses with longshot odds winning it all. In 2019, Country House went off at 65-1 odds and was declared the winner after the horse that crossed the finish line first, Maximum Security, was disqualified for an illegal maneuver. 
These longshot successes prove that the oddsmakers do not always know all; however, when you do want to place a longshot bet, there are strategies to follow to ensure that you are still making informed, strategic decisions.
For those who still love to bet underdogs, avoid picking them in exotic bets and instead focus on picking them in higher probability bets. An exotic bet is a bet where you are betting on the finishes of two different horses rather than one, such as an exacta where you attempt to pick the first and second finishers in a race in the correct slots. While these bets are enticing with their high payouts, these bets hit significantly less often, especially when you are betting on an underdog.
Instead, try a single horse bet and remember: You don’t always have to pick a horse to win in order to make money. In betting, second place is not always “the first loser.” If you think a horse will finish in either first or second, you can execute a “place” bet, or if you think your horse will finish on the podium in first, second, or third, you can place a “show” bet. While these payouts may be smaller, they allow you to root for a longshot without sacrificing a genuine shot to collect on your bet.
For those unwilling to heed our advice and want to try their hand at a trifecta or superfecta with horses with slim chances of winning, remember that the minimum bet is often extremely low depending on the type of bet (sometimes as low as 10 cents) and allows you to experiment with many different combinations. These are not the sexy bets that will finance a house in Beverly Hills; these are the bets that will help to cover another round of mint juleps at the bar. So while you are basking in your victory and enjoying the cool blend of mint and bourbon, remember this: Sometimes the best bets are the ones you don’t make.
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